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Under review

For each stock, add section for "Bull Case" and "Bear Case"

Vas Research 2 months ago in Website updated by SA Admin Daniel Hochman 2 months ago 1

For each stock, have a section called something like "bull case/bear case" that quickly summarizes the reasons to buy or sell a stock, and importantly, allows users to rebut specific items.   

For example, I currently follow AIMT, a small company with under $2B market cap. Reasonable to believe many people know nothing about it. If they visit the AIMT page to learn about it, they'd find some older articles, but might not know the latest developments. 


In a bull/bear section, they would be able to quickly get info on what the basic story is.
For example, the bull case might go something like this:

1. FDA approval of $AIMT Palforzia peanut allergy treatment should come any time between now and late January.

2. Consensus rev est for Palforzia is $55M, but Piper Jaffray recently did survey; analyst said he saw crazy disconnect, that “survey indicates 'massive upside'” to rev estimates that could top $1B in 2020 (18x greater than consensus) and $1.9B in 2021!
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2970354

3. EU approval by summer, then Asia.

4. There is no meaningful competition.

5. AIMT also has solid pipeline, with treatments for egg, tree nut, and milk allergies.

6. At $31.22, AIMT’s market cap is only $1.9B. Imagine buying a company for only 1x expected revenue, valuing zero for that pipeline! The value is insane.

7. Short interest is 23% of the float, meaning there could be a huge short squeeze.

8. Nestle owns 19% of the AIMT, buying millions of shares in Nov 2018 for $30.27, and buyout is likely.

9. Many analysts have targets at $60-$80, which sounds reasonable.


The bear case could go something like this:

1. AIMT's product is for children and studies showed increased risk of serious adverse effects. Most parents are unlikely to subject their children to such risks, and therefore revenue estimates are unrealistic.
2. A competitor $DBVT is only a few months behind with a much safer alternative. If DBVT's drug is approved, it will harm AIMT's revenues.
3. The company needs cash and will likely need to have a dilutive offering in early 2020.
4. Although FDA approval is imminent, there is a tendency for stocks to sell off soon after approval.

It would be great to allow focused debate about each topic. For example, pairing #3 of the bull case with #2 of the bear case (each about competition) so that only that single item can be debated. 


I think users should be permitted to enter items, and then have them move up/down a list with voting by others.  
Anyway, I think users would like it.

Under review

Hi,

Thank you for the extremely thoughtful feedback. We will think strongly about your recommendations. 

Thanks,

Daniel Hochman

Director of Product, Seeking Alpha